If you are approaching launch and need a dynamic forecast to help with your planning, let’s talk.
Our collaborative approach to forecasting marries top-down epidemiological data and market analogous to sophisticated bottoms-up models built on market insights. We de-risk forecasting by developing case scenarios to understand key drivers and influencing factors.
Herspiegel Consulting forecasting framework:
- Design appropriate insight gathering: In a collaborative process with key stakeholders, we first conduct a conjoint analysis to estimate the new drug’s HCP and patient preference share.
- Real-world expectations: Generate an epidemiologic-based forecast (top-down), where we estimate the potential demand and revenue of the drug using appropriate analogs and market trends.
- First-principles model Develop a customer (HCP and Patient) journey-based forecast (bottom-up) (Both HCP and Patient) Including key, dynamically modeled factors tailored toward your constraints:
- Market landscape / Competition
- Promotion through various channels
- HCP segmentation and influence network modeling
- Patient-driven demand
- Product pricing, rebates, market access, and other GNT factors
Critically analyze both the bottom-up and top-down forecasts to ensure they are sufficiently aligned and any discrepancies are rationalized and accounted for. A dynamic forecast can be used for scenario planning to help understand the impact of changes to key drivers.